NHL Lockout & CBA negotiations

Despite NHL owners essentially dictating the terms of the last CBA which included a hard cap & a 24% salary rollback after locking out the players for an entire season, they have again locked out the players, this time for refusing to accept further salary rollbacks as a starting point to negotiations.

It is no surprise that the players have rejected the owners' "starting point" for negotiations - especially given that the NHL's revenues have increased at a rate of about 7% per year (and about 50% in total) since the last CBA during a time when the US economy has suffered a serious downturn and after owners spent this past summer signing numerous players to mega deals for mega term.  If signing players to contracts they never had intention of honoring isn't bad faith negotiations, I'm not sure what is.

Nevertheless, the players did make a counter-proposal, which called for the honoring of existing contracts, but gradually reduced their share of the revenue pie to close to 50% over the term of the CBA, as well as increasing revenue sharing among owners to support struggling franchises in small, non-traditional markets.

The owners rejected the players' proposal, insisting instead that immediate rollbacks were necessary to "fix" the business side of the game and subsequently locked out the players (& fans) to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation.


On reflection, it appears that Bettman & the owners may have miscalculated on a number of fronts this time around.

Perhaps figuring that the players would be very reluctant to lose salary from lost games, especially since they ended up better off under the last "dictated" CBA despite losing an entire season's worth of pay fighting against it, the owners appear to have employed the same "hard line" strategy as last time - the message to the players has been - accept immediate rollbacks to salary or face a lockout if they don't & no negotiations until they do...

The owners also appear to be taking the fans' loyalty for granted at least a bit, exemplified when Bettman commented that the NHL has the best fans anywhere in response to whether they may be alienated by yet another work stoppage.   Fans understood the reasons for the last lockout & were generally sympathetic to money-losing owners, but there is less support now for owners who essentially dictated terms of the last CBA, spent huge sums over the summer & now want the players to give back.

Its been suggested that owners in smaller, non-traditional hockey markets are more prepared for a long lockout than those owners who were doing well, since the smaller markets were perennial money losers under the just expired CBA.   The problem with that one-dimensional thinking however is that if fans tire of this lockout, especially the longer it goes, they may lose interest altogether & find other places to spend their money...and may not be as receptive to coming back when things get settled - that would result in lower revenues & hurt small markets comparatively more than markets where there are current waiting lists for seasons tickets...and put the NHL right back into the same money-losing markets situation they are in now...presumably requiring further salary rollbacks & lockouts...

Although most current players weren't around for the last lockout, they certainly appear to be prepared to hold out rather than accept any rollback to current contracts, and actually seem to have been galvanized by Bettman & the owners rejection to negotiate off their proposal to gradually reduce their share of HRR. 

Bettman needs to be mindful that just as the owners were united in their mission to oust their nemesis Goodenow last time round, he may become, if he isn't already, the players' target this time round & make things much more difficult for himself & the owners if he overplays his hand, like he appears to be doing.   He may ultimately win the war, but whatever is left afterwards may be unrecognizable & worth a whole lot less than if he had worked with the NHLPA towards a common ground as actual "partners".  If this lockout drags on much longer, I suspect internal dissension among owners will grow and put more conflicting pressure on Bettman to "fix" things asap - in such a scenario, where emotions start to run high, it is very likely that a sub-optimal deal will result and ultimately the seeds for Bettman's removal will have been sown.

Bowman bows out of trying to improve team through trade(s)

Despite the Blackhawks losing 9 straight and 12 of 16 in the stretch immediately prior to the trade deadline, Stan Bowman decided to stan(d) pat for the most part, adding Johnny Oduya, Winnipeg's 5th defenseman (in terms of minutes played) and dealing big John Scott to the Cup contending New York Rangers as the only roster moves at the trade deadline.

Earlier last month, he had added often scratched Brendan Morrison from Calgary to supposedly "plug" the hole at 2nd line C...which unfortunately is still leaking badly, especially with Jonathan Toews now out of the lineup due to an "upper body injury".

The trade for Oduya is particularly strange, considering his UFA status and current $3.5M salary despite being at the bottom end of Winnipeg's defensive depth chart and considering Bowman's unwillingness to pay Chris Campoli, last year's deadline UFA defenseman acquisition.  The price to a acquire Oduya, a 2nd & 3rd round pick in 2013, makes absolutely no sense for a mere 5th Dman rental...and to pay a 5th Dman double the salary what Campoli is making just to re-sign him (& avoid the appearance of wasting two draft picks) makes even less sense.

The conclusion?  This trade was simply cosmetic and on the verge of panic so that Bowman could say to the media that he actually made a deal to add defensive depth that he said he was trying to do.

Compared to the moves division rival Nashville made, adding Gill, Gaustad & Kostitsyn, Bowman looks like the small market operator.

The hawks now find themselves relying on their farm team for support for a playoff push that is anything but certain.  After playing strong, disciplined games at home vs. St. Louis & Detroit last week, where their priority finally focused on preventing goals rather than scoring them, they came out against Dallas with an inexplicable anemic effort.   Facing a rookie NHL goalie Richard Bachman and a team missing Jamie Benn, its top scorer, the hawks went through the motions, managing only 6 shots on net in a scoreless 1st period, and allowing Bachman to settle in, get comfortable and gain confidence.

After Hossa feasted again on a teammate's hard work, picking up a rebound after Frolik drove hard to the net in the 2nd period to put the hawks up 1-0, he once again was directly responsible for the play that led to Dallas' equalizer midway in the 3rd.   Having the puck along the right boards in his own zone, he tried to knock it past the Dallas defenseman, hoping for a breakaway or odd man rush.  Instead, his offense-first thinking predictably backfired again, with the Stars defenseman holding the puck in the hawk zone as Hossa failed to take the body but simply glided by him, as the defenseman easily sidestepped him.

Hossa made his usual wide turn back (after all, a hard stop & restart requires a lot of effort) and actually had a chance to block the point shot from the other defenseman, but in his usual style, he made himself as small as possible so he wouldn't be hit, but nevertheless still made for an effective screen, and the shot was tipped in behind Crawford and Dallas had life.

The hawks on the other hand, failed to respond but continued to play lethargic and not surprisingly gave away an important 2 points at home to a team not far behind them in the standings. 

They failed to respond to such a devastating loss in their next game in LA, another team not far behind them in the standings - getting shut out yet again (8th or 9th time? this season) 4-0 to the Kings, with Dustin Brown registering a hat trick after his name had come up in trade rumours.   The hawks unfortunately, had no one's name come up in trade rumours, aside from the not credible Patrick Kane for Ryan Miller suggestions and consequently, they had no one who responded.   The next day in Anaheim, the hawks finally managed to score their 1st powerplay goal in 40 (FORTY!) chances, but when the Ducks were awarded a goal after video review late in the 1st, the hawks simply folded their tents and enjoyed the laid back California lifestyle for the next two periods.

Of course, the wonderful excuses for the team's demise are built-in - injuries to Toews, Sharp, Hjalmarsson, Montador, etc., contributed to the decline - though these excuses require that you don't look too closely at the 9 game losing streak & realize almost all of the above players were in the lineup for that awful streak.  And you certainly don't want to compare the hawks troubles coping with injuries to their major stars with a real team like Pittsburgh which has been without Crosby, Staal and Letang for major stretches of the entire season, yet their record is much better than the hawks despite playing in the Atlantic, a division even tougher than the Central.

And then there is the excuse of bad goaltending - Crawford & Emery to a lesser extent, simply have not provided good enough goaltending, which has sapped the team of confidence.

This certainly is a great excuse since it shifts focus off the skaters (& coaches) onto just one simple position.  The problem with that excuse is that it masks the real problems with the team - the players "offense-first" thinking leftover from their Cup win simply doesn't work unless you have 4 good lines you can roll (and who can threaten offensively) and you have good, smart, puck moving defensemen to provide the quick transition (either outlet passes or skating with the puck).

The loss of Campbell has hurt that game plan - Leddy is good, but by no means at 20 yrs old, ready yet to fill Campbell's skates, yet that is what he has been asked to do all year.  Montador, O'Donnell & Lepisto aren't up to that job either.

At forward, the hawks 3rd line has been a bust most of the year - Frolik & Bickell & even Bolland have not performed up to expectations.   Stalberg has set career highs in production, and has great wheels, but he is too inconsistent to be counted among the top 6 forwards.  Kane has not scored goals as in previous seasons, though his playmaking still is as good as ever - it makes one wonder if the move to center (and wrist injury) to start the season may still be having lingering effects on his game.

The hawks forwards as a group have a decided lack of toughness - Mayers is about the only one who is able to stand up for teammates - but by himself, he is simply overmatched.  It was not more evident than the recent game vs. San Jose, where Toews was made a frequent physical target of the Sharks, at one point taking shots to the head from opposing captain Joe Thornton, including one after his helmet was knocked off.     When Keith and a few other hawk players moved in to protect their captain, Ryan Clowe, the man publicly called out by Marian Hossa as a "coward" in an earlier season game in Chicago, jumped into the melee, while Hossa stood by & watched.  Needless to say, that image called into question just who the real coward was.

While the hawks have since called up rookies Jimmy Hayes, Andrew Shaw & Brandon Bollig to beef up the forwards, it is a bit rich to expect raw rookies to somehow step up and assume leadership roles on a recent Cup team.

The fact is the hawks core has been overused for the first part of the season, which saw the team competing for 1st overall in the league, though they were also benefited by an easy early schedule against weaker teams with a disproportionate number of them at home.

As the season ground on, it became clear that the heavy workload was taking its toll, especially on Keith & Seabrook, and on Toews, Sharp & Kane, and if those players aren't at their best, the hawks are in trouble.  In fact, early season losses to Edmonton (9-2) and later back to back home shutout losses to LA & Colorado were signals that not all was right with this hawk team, yet Bowman continued to say he was happy with the roster.

Perhaps there are deeper issues to explain the apathetic play in the second half, but aside from legitimate cup contending depth,  it seems obvious that the hawks also lack toughness - they are soft in front of both nets and too often are unwilling to pay the price at both ends to score & prevent goals.  The need for real reinforcements at defense and center were obvious (except apparently to Stan) and with the dealing of Gill, Vermette & Gaustad to western rivals the message that has been sent to  players and fans alike is a very disappointing one where management is ok with settling for mediocrity.

That message sounds very familiar to long time hawk fans who lived through the old William Wirtz/Bob Pulford era - the team was content to just make the playoffs - not do all it could to seriously compete & contend for championships.  It is a message that discourages players who hunger for more - Bobby Hull perhaps being the most notable.  

I've mentioned before, that Bowman's hands may have been tied regarding trade acquistions by Wirtz & McDonough's internal cap - that includes the salaries of Huet & Olesz unreduced by escrow (which coincidentally would put the hawks at or near the real cap if those players were playing in the NHL).   Bowman's tepid moves at the deadline do nothing to dissuade such thinking.


Could Jonathan Toews, when he grows older & more wiser (of the historic business side of the Blackhawks), tire of a management that is content to live off its latest Cup win (maybe for the next 50 years) and content with cutting costs & counting cash instead of celebrating another Cup, especially seeing how he is giving his all on the ice (exposing himself to potentially life-altering concussions), while management fails to give their all off the ice?  The team is still owned by a Wirtz, just as it was in the mid 60's heyday of Bobby Hull & Stan Mikita....and the apple never falls far from the tree...

Unless Stan makes a splash in the off-season with Huet's $5M coming off the books (and buys out Olesz's $3M+) and uses those dollars to land a name free agent (like Suter or Parise) and utilize his cap room & prospect depth to reload & reinforce the core of the team to serious contender status, I suspect the Toews to Winnipeg rumours will start surfacing in another year or two...

Trading activity picking up....Bowman watches from sidelines

With 3 trades consummated within the past 24 hours, including two involving defensemen as the principals, the hawks biggest need, it is getting down to crunch time for teams with aspirations of solidifying their playoff position and preparing for a post-season run.  Niklas Grossman, Dominic Moore & Hal Gill clearly aren't the biggest names out there, but at least in Gill's case, he provides excellent help for a pk (something the hawks clearly could use), excellent size to clear bodies from in front of his net (also something the hawks clearly need) and has significant playoff experience, including a Cup with Pittsburgh, something the hawks have, but could always use more of.

In the case of Groosman, its quite possible that Dallas wasn't really looking to appear to be helping the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year by giving them a player off their current roster for draft picks in return...wouldn't sell very well to the fans in Dallas...that is likely why they apparently asked for Saad, who tho a 2nd round pick, was ranked as high as 8th overall at mid-season last year...and is probably the hawks top junior prospect...and also remember, the Stars got to see him play in the 1st two games this NHL season...

So Stan gets a pass there...but letting Gill go to a key rival despite the high price makes me question his thinking and what else might be going on...

Nashville isn't exactly a big market in terms of the NHL & not a cap team, mainly because of their limited revenue & resulting self-imposed cap.  For them to pay the price they did for Gill sends their existing roster as well as fans a loud & clear message, namely they are prepared to pay the price to bulk up for a deep playoff run this year.

The hawks meanwhile, just coming off a 9 game losing streak that included 3 regulation losses to Nashville which has put them closer to 9th place in the west than 5th place Nashville, have acquired Brendan Morrison to fill the 2nd line center position, tho he has been scratched for several recent games.  Essentially his acquisition has used up a roster spot that previously belonged to promising rookie Jimmy Hayes who had to be sent down to Rockford (while Andrew Shaw was kept up in Chicago.

The failure to land Gill could be due to a number of reasons - Stan wasn't prepared to pay the asking price, or he doesn't particularly value the player as highly as others do, or he is in the midst of acquiring another player to address his team's needs.

The first possible reason, not prepared to pay a high price, seems pretty hollow given the cap room and prospect depth he has available to help improve the current roster, and considering the size of the Chicago market and fans' expectations that the team will do whatever it takes to put together a strong contender and given the team's struggles of late.

Perhaps Stan is being constrained by an internal team cap installed by Rocky/McDonough, who are perhaps for good reason getting a bit tired of paying NHL salaries to players who aren't playing in the NHL just so Stan has more available NHL cap space.  Rusty Olesz should have been bought out when he was acquired in exchange for Bryan Campbell (which would have cost a bit of money & cap room, but much less than what it is costing Rocky now & in future). And if reports are to be believed that the hawks are in fact looking for goaltending help despite their public denials, it would provide more fuel to McDonough's concerns about Bowman's maneuvering...since it was Bowman who decided to match defenseman Hjalmarsson's offer sheet he signed with San Jose, and let Stanley Cup winning goaltender Anti Niemi walk.  In hindsight, that appears to have been the wrong move, and leads to the question of why should anyone expect Bowman to get a trade for a replacement goaltender right this time.  (Bowman gets a pass on Huet's salary since he was signed by Tallon, but it is doubtful that fact makes McDonough feel any better about Bowman's handling of the goaltending).

The coaching staff is also probably not doing much to alleviate Rocky/McDonough's fears about how the hockey side of things are being run - it is difficult to imagine that Mike Kitchen did not have any input on both the Frolik & Olesz acquisitions (& whether to buy out the latter on acquiring him), since he coached both players while head coach in Florida.  Clearly those acquisitions have not panned out as expected, with Olesz buried in Rockford but collecting his NHL salary (without any escrow deduction) and Frolik sitting in the pressbox for several recent games.  The situation may also be causing some friction between GM & coaching staff, since Kitchen is clearly Quenneville's man (he was assistant to Q going back to their St. Louis days & long before that (1979-82), they played together for the old Colorado Rockies & New Jersey Devils in 82/83), yet Quenneville is sitting out Frolik, perhaps to Stan's (& Kitchen's) chagrin.  And this latest 9 game losing streak probably tested ownership & senior management faith in the coaching staff, especially given how poorly the hawks were outplayed in several losses, many to teams lower in the standings, who are now within striking distance of the hawks and legitimately threaten the hawks playoff chances.

In such circumstances, and given that Rocky is still a Wirtz, it would not be surprising that he may have put his GM on a short leash when it comes to utilizing the "available" cap room and instructed him to get it done without adding more net salary.

For Stan not to have highly valued what Gill would have provided is a major error in judgement since his size and ability to be physical, his pk ability and playoff experience would have perfectly complemented the hawks.  It was up to Stan to pay the premium, especially given the turmoil the club has been in, to give the defense a boost (reduce the pk burden on & overall minutes of Keith & Seabrook).  He may have to have given up several prospects & a couple of draft picks, but most will not be able to displace current hawk top 6 players in any case.

The only other acceptable scenario (from a fan's standpoint) is that Stan actually is working on something bigger...perhaps even a blockbuster...  The odds of that seem long, given that his superiors' confidence levels in his performance may be lower now than ever.  He failed to leverage early season success to address roster holes that were obvious from the start, (i.e., top 4 Dman & 2nd line C) and trying to do it now, as the deadline approaches from a position of weakness, if not desperation...well, even if he is working on a blockbuster, the odds of it working out seem small.

One interesting, if not curious  tidbit reported yesterday by Toronto media indicated that Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller would waive his No Trade Clause (NTC) to go to Chicago in a trade.  It would seem unusual for Miller to make something like that public if there were not some consideration already on the part of Buffalo management of moving him and that there was already interest by some folks in the Windy City in his services...

Of course, Buffalo management, and in particular the new owner, Terry Pegula, may have his sights set on local Buffalo hero Patrick Kane...and by announcing that Miller has no objections to moving to Chicago, he is sending a strong signal that Buffalo is ready to do some business...

If Bowman for a second entertains thoughts about moving 23 yr old Kane in return for 32 yr old Miller as the two principals, it would seem he is acting in sheer panic & desperation.  Kane has his faults - he sometimes doesn't go all out defensively, and sometimes will make poor decisions with the puck leading to turnovers and scoring chances against, and his scoring especially but also overall production is down this season (perhaps due to not having fully recovered from wrist surgery before training camp), but his skill set is unique and rare.

Even if he is still suffering from a bad wrist, he has made plays that only a handful of players are able to and he poses a threat every time he is on the ice with his speed, shiftiness and hands.  Buffalo would be getting the best player in the deal by far and would win any trade with the hawks were Kane involved.

If Buffalo is interested in moving Miller, it is Stan's job to make it clear that Kane is unavailable but at the same time  provide an appealing, alternative return....

This is where it would get interesting...the Sabres are clearly sellers at the deadline and looking to move dollars to make cap room for retooling their roster in the offseason.  They have a couple of other players that the hawks might have interest in, besides Miller.  In particular, 31 yr old Robyn Regehr who hasn't really panned out as expected this year (is 6th in ice time/game for Buffalo defensemen, having been surpassed by younger Dmen) He has 1 more year left on his contract at $4M, but provides size and ruggedness the hawks lack and has some deep playoff experience, losing the finals with Calgary in 2004.

Buffalo also happens to have a big 6'4 229lb, 30 yr old UFA center available in Paul Gaustad, who is good on draws, can obviously handle himself physically, tho his production is down and he may be more of a 3rd line C than 2nd line.  (On the downside, there are reports that Miller was not happy with Gaustad failing to challenge Lucic after the Boston player ran Miller over earlier this year, which apparently lead to some team dissension and a falling out between Miller & Gaustad in particular, so bringing both over together may also bring some issues with them).  Another alternative could be 28 yr old Derek Roy, who would fit in much better as a 2nd line center, even tho he is having a poor season in terms of production, but he is small, and not as good as Gaustad on faceoffs.  He has 1 yr left on his deal at $5M salary & $4M cap hit.  I would take Gaustad over Roy simply because I think he would provide the better physical presence that is lacking on the hawks otherwise skilled top 6 forwards.

It would appear then that Buffalo has potential solutions to most if not all of the hawks perceived roster holes...and dealing with only 1 team instead of several to acquire the missing pieces may in some respects be simpler this close to the deadline.

What then would Buffalo want in return for Miller, Regehr & Gaustad?

The obvious answer is local kid made good Patrick Kane....tho that should immediately be put to rest as not happening by the hawks.

Stan does have some other interesting pieces to offer a team that is otherwise obviously looking to rebuild/reload and clear some cap room so they can move out any malcontents and bring in some new players.  It would appear they have little interest in resigning Gaustad and Regehr has disappointed with their younger, lower salary defensemen Mike Weber & Marc-Andre Gragnani stepping up in their defensive depth chart, so the return for these players may not have to be that great, tho with Miller included, the entire offer would have to be enticing enough to do the deal without landing their prime target, Patrick Kane.

To start, the Sabres would obviously want a starting goaltender back as replacement for Miller - Enroth has played reasonably well for them this season as a backup with a .917 save percentage, but he is small (only 5'10) and not really a #1. Crawford is the obvious choice going back to Buffalo.  The Sabres gain 4.5 years and $3M in cap space in the goalie position, tho Miller's resume is clearly superior.  That said, Crawford as a rookie, was stellar in the playoffs last year and the only reason game 7 got to overtime (much like Miller's Olympic performance in the Gold Medal game also in Vancouver).

The hawks could additionally offer a good prospect, former Atlanta 2nd round pick Jeremy Morin who is still only 20, and while clearly he isn't Patrick Kane, he has decent offensive upside and hails from upstate NY.  A third player the hawks could offer in return might be 19 yr old Niagara Falls, NY native Adam Clendening, a defenseman taken in the 2nd round 36th overall in last year's draft (ahead of hawks top prospect Brandon Saad).  So those two would each offer a combination of decent upside and local connections that are especially important for smaller markets and they would replenish the depth lost with the moving of Gaustad & Regehr.

To clinch the deal, I'd also offer the hawks top prospect at C, Brandon Pirri, 20 yr old taken in the 2nd rd (59th overall) of the 2009 draft and who happens to be in the top 10 in the AHL in scoring this season, who could help replenish Buffalo's depth at center (while the hawks still have 2011 1st rd picks Phillip Danault and Mark McNeil in their system to make up for Pirri's departure).  Finally, I'd throw in Michael Frolik, who while disappointing in Chicago, just turned 24 and as a 10th overall pick from 2006 had back to back 20 goal seasons in his 1st 2 years in the NHL and presumably has some upside left, plus his salary declines over each of the next 2 seasons after which he is still an RFA, making his contract fairly friendly from a small market team.

The hawks have the cap room to make the deal fit this year, and in net terms would add an approximate $5M cap hit next year with Miller & Regehr, before any consideration to Gaustad who is a UFA.

It would certainly be a blockbuster deal, but one that might be doable, depending on the Sabres willingness
to move 32 yr old Miller & not get 23 yr old Kane back.  If the hawks sweeten the pot with enough good young players & prospects, it might sway the Sabres enough to move players that are no longer happy or welcome in Buffalo in any case.

9 games & counting...

The Blackhawks find themselves in a frightening nosedive in the Western conference that could actually see them fall out of a playoff spot, after they were challenging for 1st overall in the entire NHL mere weeks ago.

The dismaying part is the way they have lost many of these games - there seems to be a general lack of willingness to pay the price, defensively in particular, to prevent easy goals against. Even worse was the lack of response to ANOTHER complete humiliation by the 29th place team in Edmonton, where Sam Gagner got his name alongside a guy named Gretzky in the Oilers' record book.

The hawks weaknesses as a team have finally caught up to them, tho they were masked the first half of the season thanks to a very favorable schedule that included many home games & weaker teams.  Even while winning, they were near the bottom in goals against, which should have created more urgency with the GM to add a physical top 4 defenseman, to help take some of the workload off Keith & Seabrook.

It appears Bowman has overrated his team and instead of leveraging the advantage of a fast start to the season to make a deal with a struggling team in November/December to fill the hawks obvious holes, he said he was happy with the team & did nothing.

Now, I'm sure there is considerable angst as the team spirals downward with a distinct possibility of missing the playoffs altogether, given the difficulty of their remaining schedule.

There is now even speculation that hawks are looking for a goaltender, as well as talk of firing the coach - two extreme moves that would reflect absolute panic on the part of management and which would make things actually worse instead of better.

The hawks weaknesses haven't changed since the start of the season.

Expecting a 20 yr old to fill the top 4 skates of departed Bryan Campbell was & is simply unrealistic, and it should have been obvious early on, if not before, that Montador, O'Donnell & Lepisto were at best 5/6 defensemen not capable of playing top 4 minutes on a regular basis and replacing the departed Campbell & Campoli.   Leddy has played well, perhaps even better than expected, but he still is inexperienced and subject to stretches of inconsistency.  His pairing partner Hjalmarsson, clearly misses his former partner Campbell' steadying influence in puck possession and quick transition, which helped to neutralize opponent's forecheck.  Now, Hjalmarsson seems to have lost his confidence and too often simply gets rid of the puck when pressured without looking or thinking..resulting in turnovers and sustained zone pressure.

In terms of forwards, the hawks have an excellent core, but rely too much on finesse and the complementary cast has not served to take any pressure off them.  Now, it is apparent the core simply can't carry the team offensively and defensively they have been exposed by focusing too much on offense.

The personnel has changed considerably from the 2010 cup team & not for the better - yet the hawks have failed to adjust to this reality.  They still focus on offense first, at the expense of defense and their goaltending.  Crawford had an excellent rookie year, but the hawks are even weaker defensively this year and given up too many excellent chances against - which eventually undermines the confidence of any goalie, especially one in only their 2nd year in the NHL.


The hawks simply haven't committed enough to team defense - whether it is taking the body in front of their goaltender, blocking shots, hitting players to eliminate them from the play.  It seems they challenge teams on speed & skill alone as they did in 2010, but are now learning that simply isn't enough.  And as the losing grows, there is an apparent attempt by players to make unrealistic individual efforts to beat 2 or 3 opposing players at the same time that result in turnovers & more good chances against (& create more frustration when it results in a goal) rather than making smart, simple plays and relying on linemates for support.

Perhaps the most disconcerting part of all this is that these weaknesses should not be a be a revelation to anyone who has regularly watched the team this season (or even last season), yet the GM, despite having the leverage of early season success, cap room & prospect depth, has failed to act to address those weaknesses. Now there is apparent panic setting in.  Deals made in desperation generally aren't good deals that work out...

The game tomorrow night in New York vs. the Rangers is the biggest game of the season.  The hawks need to look at this as an opportunity to not only put an end to the losing streak, but more importantly, to re-create the belief within themselves that they can compete with & even beat top teams.  A win helps their mental state and changes their outlook from negative to positive, which is certainly needed if they wish to put their season back on track.

A loss on the other hand,  may be devastating, especially if they get blown out ala Edmonton style and may result in a panic move by management to try to right the ship, which will likely only make things worse. They need to show more urgency and willingness as a team to pay the price at both ends of the ice and support each other & especially their goaltender more.

Potential Acquisition Targets as Trade Deadline approaches

Despite the Blackhawks struggles of late that have seen them finally beat lowly 30th overall Columbus at home to halt a 4 game home losing streak and their slide to 5th in the Western Conference standings, the hawks have shown they are in the mix for a top seed and to seriously contend for one.  They also have shown that they have some glaring holes to fill if they want to gain an edge on the top teams in the league and make a deep playoff run.

With a 9 game road trip coming up at the end of the month prior to the deadline, and missing sniper Patrick Sharp for about a month due to injury, it would figure that Bowman may look to do his dealing sooner rather than later - in fact, he's publicly stated he would prefer to bring in new players before the deadline to give them more time to adjust.

Weaknesses

Forwards - the hawks offense is blessed with 4 of the top 25 scorers in the NHL.  The problem is their offense relies excessively on these 4 players - Toews, Kane, Sharp & Hossa.  Among those 4, there is only 1 full-time center.  Kane & to a lesser extent Sharp, have been tried in the middle with a number of different line combinations with varying degrees of success, but so far they haven't provided a permanent solution.  Rookie center Marcus Kruger was moved up to 2nd line but was hurt before he had a chance to prove he could handle the job. 

The 3rd line of Bickell, Bolland & Frolik has been a bust in terms of production - they don't come close to the Ladd Bolland Versteeg line that was so effective for the hawks in 2010.  Bolland's role seems to be primarily viewed as defensive, playing to shut down the other team's top line(s), which overlooks his underrated  offensive capability.

Possible Internal Solutions

Move Bolland to 2nd line C

I think moving Bolland up to 2nd line center, paired with Hossa and Stalberg is worth a try,  putting them up against the top line(s) of the other team - Bolland & Hossa are both noted for their strong defensive games and Stalberg has good speed.  Hossa obviously has offensive credentials...putting them together with Stalberg would allow Sharp to rejoin Toews & Kane giving the hawks a strong top line and a pretty decent 2nd line.  In addition it would leave Kruger to better handle a 3rd line center position, with Frolik & Bickell as his wingers.  Carcillo, Mayers & Brunette finish out the 4th line.

Kruger as 2nd line C

While Kruger has impressed in his 1st full NHL season, the jury is out regarding 1) his health & endurance and 2) how he'll handle the responsibility of a #2 center position & whether his offensive game will allow Hossa and other linemate to achieve their potential.  I think its too early to move Kruger into a pivotal 2nd line center job and rely on him permanently given his limited experience.

Longer-term Brandon Pirri

Longer term, Brandon Pirri who is currently top center in Rockford has shown glimpses that he has offensive potential to fill the 2nd line center spot, though as with most young players, his defensive game needs work.  The hawks seem to be high on him, but it is possible that in an effort to better contend this season, Pirri could be dealt for more immediate help at center if the right deal comes along.


Possible acquisition candidates

1. Antoine Vermette - Columbus is clearly going to be an active seller, looking to move UFAs Pahlsson, Prospal, Huselius, etc.  Given that they are nearly at the cap and the contract structure of their top players (Nash, Carter & Wizniewski are each signed for 5 more years at least (& Carter for the next 10!) all with restrictions on their movement), it is very likely that Columbus will be looking to shed some longer term contracts where possible, to lower their cap hit and maximize flexibility going in to next season.  Vermette is potentially one of those players - he's been a 2nd line center, who is very good on faceoffs, and has good career numbers at the UC and may be the odd man out in Columbus with the emergence of rookie center Ryan Johansen and another younger center Derrick Brossard, also signed for 3 more years.

It seems plausible that Columbus will look to dump longer term salary where they can & Vermette appears to be a prime candidate, assuming they can get a suitable return.  Columbus needs help in all areas, and would likely take a good young player or prospect (with lower salary) back - the hawks do have several good young players, some whom they likely don't want to part with, including Jimmy Hayes, Jeremy Morin, Brandon Pirri, and Brandon Saad, however, not all of these young prospects will find room with Chicago given how young Toews & Kane are & how long Hossa & Sharp are signed for.   I'd offer Columbus Bryan Bickell, who has been a disappointment for the hawks this season after a promising rookie campaign including playoffs last year.  He's only 25, has size, great wrist shot and comes with a low cap hit, with a $541K cap hit this year & next.  Jimmy Hayes has shown in his brief stint that his upside appears quite high & his size, speed & hands, make Bickell expendable.  If push came to shove, the hawks might have to give up one of their up & coming young prospects, like center Brandon Pirri to get Vermette.

2. Saku Koivu - Anaheim, like Columbus, is essentially out of the playoff race and looking to get a return for their UFAs (& perhaps make bigger changes).  The two most prominent UFAs for the Ducks are Saku Koivu & Teemu Selanne, who are 37 & 41 yrs old respectively.  Despite their age, Selanne leads the Ducks in scoring and Koivu is a +10 on the 29th overall team.  The biggest question surrounding both players is their willingness to waive their no-movement clauses for a chance to win a cup before the end of their career.  Selanne already has his name on the Cup, and may decide to stay put with is family in Anaheim & participate in the World Championships hosted by his native Finland this year as his career swan swong.

Koivu T 37 has yet to win a Cup, and arguably may still have a couple of more productive years left in him.   Former hawk & current Anaheim GM Bob Murray has indicated he is not looking to move either player, tho you can bet he'd love to get something in return now for two assets that may be gone in any case next season.  It may come down to whether the hawks (or other team) can entice Koivu with a contract extension to convince him it is worth the move.  Tho it is quite likely that Anaheim may be happy with a mid round (i.e. 3rd rd) pick (as opposed to a prospect or player), given the uncertainty with a new CBA and the fact that Koivu is over 36 and any contract given to players his age count against the cap in full for the length of the contract even if he were later bought out, the hawks may favor a simpler deal for Vermette, tho Koivu certainly provides more intangibles of character & leadership.

3. Tuomo Ruutu - the former hawk has played a lot of wing in Carolina alongside Eric Staal, and been fairly productive, though his natural position is center.  As a UFA with a $3.8M price tag and young Jeff Skinner clearly slotted for 2nd line center in Carolina, they likely won't be looking to resign Ruutu as a 3rd line center or winger for that matter, for the kind of money he is currently making so he probably is available for the right return.  In Chicago, he was noted for his rambunctious style, never shying away from a hit when it was there, along with putting up some points on some very bad hawk teams.  The hawks could certainly use more hitting up front, but Ruutu is weak on draws and would probably be more of a 3rd than 2nd line center with the hawks, though is versatile enough to play wing as a top 6 forward.  Still, a return to Chicago, with a chance to win a cup along with lowered expectations for him than his first stint in Chicago may provide just the impetus needed for him to thrive - giving up a 2nd or 3rd rd pick would be a reasonable deal.

Other candidates -
Sami Pahlsson - Columbus 3rd line center UFA, decent on draws & pk but doesn't have offensive skill to produce on a 2nd line
Olie Jokinen - UFA with Calgary - has the offensive ability to play on a 2nd line, tho not good on draws & the Flames are still in the playoff hunt and likely won't be looking to move him unless & until they are out of it.
Dominic Moore - Tampa 3rd line center UFA - good on draws, pk and overall utility player, tho questionable in 2nd line role and may not be available as Tampa is still in the hunt.

 
Defense - The additions of Steve Montador, Shawn O'Donnell & Sami Lepisto in the off-season were supposed to provide the hawks with more grit and toughness at the blueline (as well as make up for the loss of Bryan Campbell & Chris Campoli), however, Montador, O'Donnell & Lepisto are #5, 6 & 7 defensemen who don't get much regular playing time, leaving the hawks with only one physical type Dman in their top 4 - Brent Seabrook.  The hawks clearly miss Bryan Campbell's puck possession & transition game, tho Nick Leddy has shown as a 20 year old playing top 4 minutes mainly with Nick Hjalmarsson, that he has a bright future ahead of him, where he could very well eventually make hawk fans forget Campbell.   While Leddy has done an admirable job, he has had stretches where he's struggled (as any 20 yr old would), leaving the hawks exposed in their own zone.   In addition, Nik Hjalmarsson's game hasn't really progressed and in some ways has actually regressed - he doesn't hit nearly as much as he did in his first year, and in fact, he takes much more punishment blocking shots & on the receiving end of big hits, you wonder how long he can go before breaking down physically.  Hjalmarsson also appears much more conscious of forecheck pressure & getting hit, which too often results in poor clear attempts and turnovers in the hawks zone.

Montador & O'Donnell have done as much as could be reasonably expected from them, but they aren't capable of playing regular #3/4 defensive minutes, especially for an extended number of games.  Besides depth needs, the hawks current 3/4 defensemen have question marks about their ability to handle the workload at crunch time.

The hawks could definitely use a big defenseman who can play top 4 minutes and be physical and clear the front of the net.  Internally, Dylan Olsen appears to be the only prospect in Rockford who has the ability to possibly crack the hawks defensive corps who possesses the size & physicality needed, however, it is unrealistic to expect him to upgrade the defense for the playoff push this year.



Possible acquisition candidates

1.  Tim Gleason - a young 28 yr old UFA, top 4 dman with Carolina that is likely attracting interest from several teams, including Philadelphia looking to replace Pronger, tho he is not overly big, but does have a physical edge to his game.  The asking price may be high, given his age and experience and the demand for top 4 defensemen, tho it could be complicated by his contract status - some teams will be reluctant to pay a high asking price if he is a rental only, and thus will likely want to negotiate a new contract before agreeing to a trade, which may in turn increase the asking price. 

2. Francois Beauchemin - Anaheim's veteran 31 yr old UFA top 4 defenseman who despite not being overly big can be physical and has Cup winning experience which will likely mean he'll be in high demand given his credentials. 

3. Corey Sarich - He was a healthy scratch earlier in the season for Calgary, though has been in the lineup lately, playing regular minutes as a 6/7 defenseman.   He is an older UFA at 33, but has good size at 6'4", can be physical and fight if necessary, is a right hand shot and won a Cup with Tampa.  No longer the 4/5 defensemen the hawks could use now, but would provide good depth and capable of playing top 4 minutes to fill in.

Other candidates - Ryan Suter - tho it is very likely that the 26 yr old potential UFA will re-sign in Nashville, if  contract negotiations hit a snag, Poile will want to get a decent return for their top 2 defensman (unlike when they lost Timonen & Hamhuis to UFA with little or nothing back).   There would be plenty of contending teams with cap room lining up to bid on him, including Detroit, Chicago, Boston, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Tampa, Dallas, Colorado, etc., and give Poile several offers difficult to refuse.   One aspect that could potentially play a role in the Suter negotiations is the emergence of rookie defenseman Ryan Ellis - if the playmaking Ellis is judged to be ready to take that next step into a top 4 role, Poile may decide the return of several good young players/prospects he could get in return for Suter could position the Preds better than putting too many money eggs in Suter's basket.

The hawks may have an advantage if Suter becomes available - 1) they have good young players/prospects to offer Nashville in return & 2) they have cap room to sign him longer term & 3) Chicago is an attractive cup contender with the city offering one of the best places to live with great supportive hockey fans (as his uncle Gary could vouch for), not far from his hometown in Madison, Wis.   Nashville might be reluctant to deal him within their own division, however, if he doesn't re-sign with them, they have little control over where he ultimately ends up and future realignment may make it a moot point in any case. 

Bryan Allen, another Carolina UFA defensman, is a bit older than Gleason at 31, but also bigger at 6'5, 226 and plays as a #6. The asking price for the former Canuck would be lower (3rd or 4th rd pick) than for Gleason, but he would not be the top 4 dman needed but would add to the hawks blueline physicality & depth.
Jaroslav Spacek - already had two previous stints with the hawks & at 37 the pending Carolina UFA would come fairly cheap (likely a mid to late i.e., 5th or 6th round pick), tho it is questionable whether he could be a regular top 4 contributor, tho would add experience & depth, tho not exactly the big physical Dman the hawks could use, tho he is solidly built.

I expect the hawks to pick up Vermette as well as Beauchemin and/or Sarich (unless Suter becomes available, in which case, I expect they'll make a serious pitch for the top 2 Nashville blueliner)


Other potential moves


Frolik has been a disappointment this season after seemingly coming on in the playoffs last year - He's still young at 23, (compared to a young Jaromir Jagr back in his native Czech when he was drafted  10th overall in 2006) and has two 20 goal seasons to his credit with Florida, but has not produced commensurate with his new contract in his first full year in Chicago.   It might be premature to give up on him, but the hawks do have some promising young talent coming up that is pushing for ice time in the likes of Jimmy Hayes, Andrew Shaw, Ben Smith and Brandon Saad that may make Frolik expendable.   If the right deal came along, I'd move Frolik.


Nik Hjalmarsson has plateaued and while I admire his willingness to take abuse blocking shots & often taking a pounding from opposing forwards who seem to delight in targeting him for big hits, he has become more susceptible to forecheck pressure & prone to turnovers, partly since he doesn't have an experienced Bryan Campbell on his other side to bail him out and skate away from pressure and out of trouble with the puck.  The loss of his former veteran D partner has exposed Hjalmarsson more to the forecheck and his new defensive partner, 20 yr old Nick Leddy, is still adjusting to the league and his own increased responsibilities as a top 4 dman playing the right side as a left handed shot, to provide much support to the more experienced Hjalmarsson.

Hjalmarsson himself is only 24 - still has his prime years ahead of him, but he has stopped progressing from his solid play in 2010 and is no longer making regular big hits for whatever reason.

If the hawks get the right deal, eg. if Suter or perhaps Iginla became available, Hjalmarsson & Frolik are two players I would not be reluctant to move in such deals.